Future Scenarios & Policy

SAF Blending & Carbon Policies

As the aviation sector transitions towards Net Zero, Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) play a critical role. The simulator allows users to define a SAF blending percentage. Because SAF has a slightly different chemical composition than conventional Jet-A1, the volumetric and gravimetric energy densities are adjusted proportionally to the blend ratio.

Beyond direct \(CO_2\) emissions, aviation impacts the climate through non-CO2 effects, such as contrail cirrus formation and Nitrogen Oxides (\(NO_x\)) emissions. The simulator accounts for these using a non-CO2 multiplier. When pricing carbon, the effective emissions are calculated as:

\[ CO_{2,\text{effective}} = CO_{2,\text{direct}} \cdot M_{\text{non-CO2}} \]

Where \(M_{\text{non-CO2}}\) represents the climate forcing multiplier. A stringent carbon policy will price this effective emission value heavily, increasing the operational cost of fuel-burning architectures compared to battery-electric systems.

Tech Risk Premium

Investing in novel technologies (like high-density batteries or superconducting motors) inherently carries financial risk. To reflect the hesitation of investors and manufacturers, the simulator applies a Technological Risk Premium to the capital cost.

However, as technology matures and production scales up over time, this risk diminishes. The model simulates this maturation using an exponential decay function. The extra cost associated with technological risk (tech_risk_cost_eur(t)) at a future year \(t\) is calculated using a decay constant \(\lambda\) (tech_risk_lambda):

\[ \text{tech\_risk\_cost\_eur}(t) = \text{Initial\_Premium} \cdot e^{-\lambda \cdot (t - t_0)} \]

This allows the simulator to project economic viability into the future, demonstrating how early-stage subsidies or gradual technological maturation can eventually yield a profitable hybrid-electric platform.